From the Category 6 blog...
Scenario 1: If the high-pressure ridge is stronger and extends farther west, that would increase the chance of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast, particularly over the Southeast U.S. coast between Georgia and North Carolina, with the hurricane then driving inland.
- Prognosis: Increasingly possible. The latest 0Z and 12Z runs of the European, GFS, and UKMET models all support this solution.
Scenario 2: If the high-pressure ridge is weaker and doesn't extend as far west, that would diminish but not eliminate the chance of a landfall. However, that could still bring Florence uncomfortably close to the East Coast, resembling a slow moving nor'easter. Several days of damaging surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion would occur in this scenario along at least a portion of the East Coast, with the mid-Atlantic coast at risk of a direct hit.
- Prognosis: Possible
Scenario 3: Florence may remain sufficiently far enough offshore to avoid even significant coastal flood impacts.